Friday, March 28, 2008

Q and A with Yankees Future


I would like to thank Pablo Zevallos of Yankees Future who took the time to answer a few questions about the Yankee's prospects. The questions will be bold, answers normal.

1. You rank Austin Jackson higher than most even though he has only had one solid season in the minors. Is this due to his potential compared to other players?
Partially, but the results that manifested from Jackson were expected because he has the potential to be a 5-tool player, and the tools have always been there. He was arguably a top 10 (definitely a top 15) talent last year, and the results show that he has made his tools into solid results (.345/.398/.566 at High A Tampa). I would like to see more walks, and though the OBP is solid, the high batting average accounts for a disproportionately high amount of that, but that will come with time. His gap power should translate well into home run power eventually as well. A good comparison is Curtis Granderson in terms of what statistical output to expect.

2. Dellin Betances is a personal favorite of mine and after having an injury plagued season last year do you see him returning to Staten Island or playing a full season in Charleston?
Betances is a big question mark. He only pitched 25 innings last year, but if one follows the "30 rule", he will never get to 200 innings. He needs to prove he can handle at least 90, but more likely 100 innings this year, and have a healthy elbow as well. The walk problems were likely a result of the elbow issues, but the Yankees will likely be cautious with their precious giant and start him off at Staten Island. He should move on to Charleston before being shut down for the year.

3. Jesus Montero is just a HUGE man with amazing power. In the long run do you see him remaining behind the plate or will his bat push him over to 1st base?
Montero is indeed huge, and he has 80 raw power on the 20-80 scouting scale. He should be able to hit 40 home runs in his prime if pans out. His defense gets differing reviews, depending on who you read. With his size, agility behind the plate will be an issue, and the wear and tear of catching will eventually affect his bat. He probably can catch, as Joe Mauer of the Twins is 6'5" and 230 lbs, slightly bigger than Montero. Remember, he's only 19 at this point and will be at Class A Charleston, so there is still a lot to learn. In the end, whether he catches or not depends on a) who of him or Austin Romine reaches the majors first, and b) does Romine or Francisco Cervelli have enough bat to start on a Yankee lineup. My gut says that he will be a first baseman because Romine will be able to handle the bat well, and already has great defense.

4. Having as high a ceiling as anyone in the '07 draft the Yanks snagged Backman all the way at #30 because of his TJS. Did he fall to #11 on your list for the same reason? If he was healthy where would you rank him?
He fell to #11 in my ranking for that reason combined with his rawness and issues with his delivery. He has less than 150 innings under his belt in college, and his sophomore season was injury-riddled and disappointing. Part of the injuries, the elbow injury notwithstanding, was that he was a 2-way player in college, also playing basketball. His elbow injury has sometimes been attributed to how his college coaches tinkered negatively with his delivery. Despite this, he has the highest potential of anyone in the Yankees' system right now, right up there with Dellin Betances. He has the ability to be an ace, with his assortment of pitches, including an almost triple-digit fastball and trademark plus knucklecurve. If healthy, I would have put him at #5.

5. I have this feeling Joba Chamberlain will become the next Jonathan Papelbon and remain in the bullpen. Although if he turns out as dominate as Papelbon in might not be that bad. Do you see him moving into the rotation after the all-star break? If so who moves out to create a spot for him?
Joba will likely be a starter before the All-Star break. He'll likely be in the bullpen until June, when he'll be sent down to Scranton W/B to extend his arm with 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7 inning starts, and then return to the Majors in early July. One of the pitchers at that point may be injured, so a spot may be filled there. Otherwise, a distracted/called under a subpoena Pettitte could have vacated a spot, or an ineffective Mike Mussina could be taken out. Hughes or, more likely, Kennedy can be demoted for ineffectiveness as well. But it would be hard to give him a spot without something going wrong (which would be bad), and even then Joba will have a learning curve in the majors while starting. Joba has ace potential, and it would be wasted if he can only pitch 70 innings a year. At this point, he'll have only one more year of innings caps and he'll be on his way to 200+ innings.

6. Future of Humberto Sanchez? Starter? Middle relief? Set Up? Closer?

Humberto Sanchez doesn't have much of a future on the team. He has the potential to be an upper-tier closer, like Jose Valverde, but the role of future closer goes to Mark Melancon, the highly-regarded 2006 9th rounder out of Arizona. Sanchez doesn't have a future as a starter because of never-ending injury issues, many (like his current knee injury) tying in to his weight and lack of conditioning. The Yankees already have surer bets as starting pitcher prospects, so Sanchez doesn’t fit there. The nearly-ready J.B. Cox has presumed the role of set-up man of the future. He has a plus heavy 92-95MPH fastball (tops out at 96), causing groundballs, and an above-average curveball, along with a changeup. That's enough of a repertoire to be a closer somewhere. That leaves his role to be a middle reliever, but he would be too good for that, and Ross Ohlendorf, David Robertson, Kevin Whelan, and Scott Patterson should hold that role down well in the future. So, on the Yankees, Sanchez is trade bait, maybe for a solid bat at first base. This puts a negative light on the Sheffield trade, because Claggett is a low-ceiling player and Whelan needs control to avoid being the next Kyle Farnsworth.

7. Quick projections on Generation Trey's individual performances?
Hughes: 165 IP 28G 28GS 13-7 145K 46BB 155H 3.50 ERA

Kennedy: 190IP 32G 32GS 14-10 175K 53BB 185H 4.25 ERA
Chamberlain: 140 IP 66G 14GS 9-5 155K 50BB 125H 3.05 ERA

Thanks again to Pablo for taking time to answer these questions for us.

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